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03/06/2010 - Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Post-time favorite Awesome Act, ridden by Julien Leparoux, scampered away down the stretch to capture Saturday's $250,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. The 1 1/16-mile Gotham is the final local prep before the $750,000 Wood Memorial on April 3.
Sent off as the 5-2 favorite, Awesome Act had been the 7-2 morning-line favorite as well in the 10-horse field. The chestnut colt was making his first start since finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last November.
Trained by Jeremy Noseda, the three-year-old was racing just off the pace that was being set by Wow Wow Wow. Running in second up the backstretch was Whirlaway Stakes winner Peppi Knows with Three Day Rush racing in third.
The field began to bunch up around the final turn and there were six horses across the track coming into the stretch. Awesome Act was on the outside coming off the turn and quickly took the lead at the top of the stretch.
Awesome Act was able to maintain his lead down the stretch even as Yawanna Twist, the 7-2 second choice, made a late run. Awesome Act posted a 1 1/4- length win over Yawanna Twist with Nacho Friend finishing third and Turf Melody getting fourth.
Rounding out the order of finish was Shrimp Dancer, Peppi Knows, I've Got the Fever, Wow Wow Wow, Three Day Rush and Afleet Again.
The time for the Gotham was 1:43.85 on a fast track.
Awesome Act is co-owned by Mrs. Susan Roy and Vinery Stables. The Gotham win was worth $150,000 as the colt recorded his first stakes victory. He has won two of seven career starts for $221,691.
Saturday's race was the first on dirt for Awesome Act. He had started five times on turf and once on an artificial surface. He lost the Juvenile Turf to Pounced by 1 1/4-lengths following a late rally.
Awesome Act returned $7.70, $5.10 and $3.80. Yawanna Twist paid $5.90 and $4.70, and Nacho Friend paid $6.80 to show.
<< Falcons sign CB Robinson
Flowery Branch, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Falcons announced the
signing of free agent cornerback Dunta Robinson Saturday to what is reported
to be a six-year contract worth $57 million.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution rep
<< McCourt: Divorce not affecting team
GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) -Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt says divorce proceedings with his wife are not affecting the team's finances.McCourt was visiting his team for the first time this spring.He has had only brief interaction with the media
<< Nancy clips Nice in stoppage time
Nice, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Substitute Issiar Dia scored in stoppage time
to hand Nancy a 3-2 win over Nice at the Municipal du Ray on Saturday.
Djamel Bakar scored five minutes into the game for Nancy, but the hosts
answered tw
<< Kansas downs rival Mizzou
Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyshawn Taylor led a balanced scoring attack
with 13 points while delivering six assists, as second-ranked Kansas closed
out its regular season with a sound 77-56 defeat of Missouri at Mizzou Arena.
Marcu
No. 25 Xavier downs St. Bonaventure >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jordan Crawford scored 22 points to lead
25th-ranked Xavier to a 93-72 win over St. Bonaventure in the regular-season
finale for both teams at Cintas Center.
Jamel McLean poured in 15 points for the M
Former PGA Tour winner Pate leads Bogota Open >>
Bogota, Colombia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former PGA Tour winner Steve Pate had a
five-under 66 Saturday to take a two-shot lead after three rounds of the
Nationwide Tour's Bogota Open.
The 48-year-old Pate birdied five of his last 11 hol
Villegas alone in first at PGA National >>
Palm Beach Gardens, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Camilo Villegas posted a three-under
67 on Saturday to take sole possession of the lead after the third round of
the Honda Classic.
Villegas finished 54 holes at 11-under 199 and is three stroke
Stanford finishes off perfect Pac-10 slate >>
Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kayla Pedersen had 23 points and Nnemkadi
Ogwumike scored 22, as No. 2 Stanford beat California, 63-48, to wrap up their
first undefeated Pac-10 season since 2002.
Ogwumike added 14 rebounds and Pederse
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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